Fixed Wireless Access adoption will continue to grow in the U.S.

The total U.S. FWA market has taken off as mid-band 5G coverage has expanded, with just shy of seven million subscribers at the end of Q3 2023. We anticipate this number to surpass 10 million by the end of 2024 with growth in all geographic regions: urban, suburban and rural. Major U.S. operators have seen strong FWA growth in the past year – each adding between 250,000 and 600,000 net subscribers every quarter – and FWA’s outstanding performance, ease of use, and compelling pricing will continue to drive such growth into the new year. The convenience and flexibility made possible by FWA appeals to many users, especially those in rural areas underserved by traditional wired connectivity. We believe that FWA subscriptions will continue to grow at a healthy rate through 2024 and likely beyond – providing operators with a strong and monetizable 5G use case. This growth in usage will trigger additional investments in mid-band and mmWave spectrum rollouts.

Early vRAN adopters will begin to see meaningful total cost of ownership savings

In 2023, vRAN became an important tool for an expanding number of operators looking to transform their networks and drive more flexible, agile deployments to keep up with the increase in mobile traffic. Capabilities afforded to operators deploying vRAN architectures allow for significant total cost of ownership (TCO) savings over time. Based on our ongoing analysis of capex and opex dynamics, we estimate that operators will see meaningful savings in total cost of ownership in the long-term. The drivers of these impactful reductions stem largely from continued progress in processing capacity, the introduction of advanced energy efficiency features, and streamlined network operations and management through automation offerings. As pioneering implementations continue to yield promising data around operational expenditures, vRAN’s value proposition for next-generation connectivity strengthens. In essence, virtualization unlocks the door to more cost-effective and adaptive networks optimized for innovation and evolution.

More vendors will join the Open RAN ecosystem but bring more confusion

It took time to define and establish Open RAN standards, but now operators appreciate having the flexibility to select network components from an expanding pool of vendors rather than being locked into solutions from any single supplier. The Open RAN market has continued to grow significantly and is forecasted to account for more than 15% of the total global RAN market by 2027. We expect to see the market continue to grow in 2024, with more vendors providing Open RAN-compliant products and more carriers adopting them globally. Samsung is the only major vendor that’s been successful to date, as we have the most large-scale commercial experience globally. Our approach to Open RAN is backed by a broad 5G ecosystem of industry leading innovators, allowing us to expand 5G Open RAN progress, multi-party collaboration, innovation and advancement of open networks.

On one hand, it’s great to see more RAN vendors, large and small, enter the ecosystem. But it is critical that simplicity, multi-vendor interoperability and ecosystem diversity must remain top priorities. In 2024, we are likely to see two new open fronthaul interface specifications in addition to the widely standardized Option 7.2x. Self-interested reasons may drive the introduction of new options, though they will inevitably result in fragmentation of the ecosystem, implementation complexity, and confusion among operators. Samsung and our partners have deployed Open RAN at scale and validated its capabilities for even the most advanced Massive MIMO radios. As the vendor with the largest partner ecosystem in this area, Samsung will continue to lead the charge in helping operators to deploy open networks. We’ve been able to complete the majority of integration and validation in advance of the customer lab, enabling operators to gain confidence of high performance and deploy with a faster time to market.

2024 is the breakout year for Network Slicing and AI-driven Automation

Network slicing has been a serious topic of discussion for several years but is awaiting standalone 5G core implementations to take off globally. We believe 2024 will be the breakout year for widespread commercial 5G network slicing deployments. While 2023 was a vibrant year in Japan with exciting progress made on network slicing, in 2024, we anticipate a U.S. operator will launch commercial network slicing services, serving real-world applications like enhanced live event broadcasting or mission-critical push-to-talk for public safety needs. The promise of network slicing fundamentally stems from enabling multiple customized virtual networks atop shared infrastructure. For example, operators can now create an ultra-low latency IoT slice for smart factories alongside a high bandwidth slice for video streaming. Both operate simultaneously on the same network equipment. This multi-service flexibility allows carriers to rapidly deliver niche connectivity solutions to consumers and enterprises according to exact needs.

In 2024, we will witness a surge in network automation. The ever-increasing growth of wireless applications and data traffic—along with the adoption of virtualized, open architectures—has given rise to more intricate network infrastructures. To effectively manage this complexity and reduce operating expenses, network operators are seeking ways to optimize efficiencies, starting with deployment and management. As the network architecture evolves to become more software-driven, operators will turn to automated operational processes and analytics tools to enhance efficiency and functionality.

Automation will enable operators to perform end-to-end deployment and activation procedures remotely, reducing the on-site work that is required beyond the initial installation of network elements. Furthermore, we also foresee the rise of AI-driven automation, which will accelerate deployment of services with minimal manual intervention and human errors.

Conclusion

As key innovations like FWA, vRAN, Open RAN, network slicing and AI-driven automation progress in 2024, the world of connectivity and mobile technology stand poised for transformation. These developments promise more ubiquitous, flexible and cost-efficient networks uniquely fitted to fill diverse needs.

For consumers, breakthroughs like FWA, automation and network slicing ensure wireless keeps pace with our bandwidth appetites and lifestyle demands. For enterprises, tailored networks, network slicing and simplified infrastructure management unlock new productivity. For operators, innovations in areas like virtualization and disaggregation provide sustainable paths to profit while future-proofing investments. With the meaningful maturity of these wireless advancements on the horizon, 2024 shapes up as an exciting time when the door opens to a new age of versatile, available and economical connectivity.